CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-10T15:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47501/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the SW in STEREO A COR2, GOES CCOR-1, and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 after a downlink gap backfilled in. The source is AR 14485 and a C6.0 flare (S16W47) peaking at 2026-07-10T14:59Z. Also observed well in SDO AIA 171/193 as field line movement, pockets of dimming in the vicinity (not a central area), and a minor EUV wave. Arrival signature: Characterized by an increase in B_total from 4nT to 5nT, reaching periods of 9nT at 2026-07-13T15:51Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 412 km/s to 430 km/s, an increase in density, and a small increase in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-13T14:39Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-14T10:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
Prediction Method Note:

KSWC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7e
Resolution: low (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a5b1
WSA version: 2.2


CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-07-10 20:26
Radial velocity (km/s): 685.1
Longitude (deg): 40.6
Latitude (deg): -7.7
Half-angular width (deg): 28.0

Notes:

Lead Time: 61.32 hour(s)
Difference: -19.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by RWC KSWC (KASA) on 2026-07-11T01:20Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy